iran-wants-war

First and foremost, and I have said that innumerable times on this blog, this is not about some putative Iranian nuclear weapons program. I will not repeat all the arguments in detail here (those interested can look into the archives), but here is a short summary of why Iran never intended to have a nuclear weapon:

1) Iranians are very smart, not stupid.  They fully understand that a few nuclear weapons would make absolutely no difference in a war against Israel or the US or anybody else.  If used aggressively, they would trigger a massive response and if used defensively, in response to an attack, they would not be here in the first place, because any attack would begin by a counter-force disarming strike, possibly a nuclear one.  Any putative Iranian nuclear forces lacks both the survivability and flexibility needed to be used or even to deter any attack.
2) Acquiring a military nuclear capability would instantly turn Iran into a pariah state.  We saw the sanctions against Iran against an imaginary nuclear program; you can imagine what they would be against a real one.
3) Iran is uninvadable as a country – it is too big, the terrain too complex, the population too large and, frankly, its armed forces too strong.  Compared to Iran, both Afghanistan and Iraq were easy targets (there is a reason why the US has not even attempted to invade Iran since 1979!).  Iran can, however, be very heavily bombed with missiles and successive airstrikes.  This is not the kind of threat a nuclear capability can deter.  In other words, Iran does not even need nukes.
4) The US intelligence community has admitted that Iran has no military nuclear program.  All they could claim is that Iran had one in the past.  Considering the pressure the US intelligence community was under at the time, this is as exculpatory a report as can be realistically expected.
5) The Iranian spiritual leaders have gone on the record multiple times and most officially declared that nuclear weapons are immoral, un-Islamic and forbidden.  Secularists tend to believe that religious folks are always liars, I tend to believe that they do follow the principles which they believe in.
6) It is most definitely not about anybody wanting to get (or prevent) and “Islamic bomb” as Pakistan already has just that.

So if this not about nukes, what is it?

Simple!

1) It is about not allowing the Islamic Republic of Iran to become a viable, vibrant and prosperous alternative to the Wahabi and Zionist client-states in the region.
2) Is is about showing that even Iran can and will be bullied into submission to the Axis of Kindness.
3) It is about preventing Iran from acquiring its own civilian nuclear research program, which is a source of technology and pride.
4) It is a pretext to impose vicious sanctions on Iran
5) It is a pretext to attack Iran militarily
6) It is about subverting the Iranian society

Now that we have listed the real stakes of the apparent agreement in Lausanne, we can also explain why Obama is pushing the deal while Netanyahu is appalled by it.  The US deep state apparently came to the realization that a war with Iran would be a disaster for the USA and its Empire and the US might even be considering reaching some kind of modus vivendi with Iran before the entire Middle-East explodes, because of the multiple foreign policy mistakes of the USA in the region.  We are not talking about a US-Iranian love fest, at least not quite yet, but rather a way from freeing the USA from this exhausting and useless confrontation with the key regional superpower.  With now three major potential wars possible (Ukraine, Yemen, Iran), the US wants at least one put back on the back burner to free resources for the other two.

For the Israelis, this is very bad news indeed, not because Iran is about to “commit another Holocaust” (sic), but because they put all their power, prestige, influence and, last but not least, hysterics into whipping up a crazy anti-Iranian panic and they have failed.  These feelings of failure and fear will now also be shared by the Saudis.

Will the Israelis strike alone?

Militarily, they don’t have what it takes to meaningfully strike Iran.  But they sure can strike hard enough to create a crisis and since artificially creating fear, chaos and tensions is what Israel does best, there is a good chance they might try that in despair.  The problem with any of such strategies is that Iran has numerous asymmetrical options which I listed as far back as 2007 in an article entitled Iran’s asymmetrical response options.  Much has changed since 2007, but fundamentally these options for Iran are still there.

I have to confess here that I have been predicting a US and/or Israeli attack on Iran since I created this blog in 2007 and, so far at least, I have been proven wrong.  Will the Israeli Ziocrazies prove me right now?  Possibly.  For them, it has become a political necessity to show the region and the world “who is boss” and right now, it sure does not look like Israel is.

Between the the war in the Ukraine, the war in Yemen and the tensions around Iran – 2015 is shaping up to become an exceptionally dangerous year.  And the key leaders are all either dumb, or crazy, or ideologically fanaticized.  God help us all in our resistance to the Empire and its shock troops!

The Saker