High risk of imminent large scale military operations in the Donbass

Most of you must by now have heard various reports about the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Ukraine.  Many, however, might have dismissed them because, let’s be honest here, we have had so many false warnings about an imminent Ukronazi attack that we got used to them.  In fact, there have been numerous previous incidents, but this time around I see enough indicators and warnings to warrant another warning.  Here are the new elements:

1. Over the past couple of months the Ukrainians have gradually amassed a very large force estimated by most observers are 120’000 soldiers.  Some units were moved away from the Crimean border and the city of Mariupol and deployed all along the line of contact in the Donbass.
2. The Ukronazis have officially admitted that they are implementing what they call a “frog leap” tactic in the Donbass which consists of slowly but constantly taking control of the gray zone supposed to separate the two sides and they are not reporting about the territories they have “liberated”.
3. Poroshenko is, by all accounts, totally clueless as how to proceed.  This weakness if felt by key Ukrainian politicians who recently have made strong statements in support of a military “solution”.  Those politicians include Yulia Timoshenko and Dmitry Iarosh.  If Poroshenko does nothing, they call him a coward, if he orders an attack on the Donbass they will call him a loser.  For the Nazis, this is a win-win situation.
4. There is a consensus opinion amongst experts that the Ukronazi junta is horrified by the election of Donald Trump and that they see only one option to force the hand of Trump: to force Russia to openly intervene in defense of the Novorussian Republics which would, of course, result in a military defeat for the Ukraine but also a political victory as the US and EU cannot allow Russian to openly defeat the Ukrainians without reacting.
5. The Ukrainians have moved forward heavy artillery systems, including ballistic missiles and heavy long range multiple rocket launchers we can strike in downtown Donetsk.  Ukrainian MBT and APC/IFV are also seen in large number all along the line of contact.  The deployment of such systems is a direct violation of the Minsk-2 Agreement but the Ukronazis don’t seem to care.
6. More and more Ukrainian politicians are openly declaring the the Minsk Accords are dead and that only a military solution is possible.  Some members of the Rada want to declare war on Russia.
7. The Americans are closely monitoring the situation, US drones were detected all along the line of contact, but Donald Trump seems to have decided that he has no interest in stopping the Ukrainians.  Bad tongues will say that he doesn’t have the wisdom or political will to take action.  Trump-still-hopefuls are saying that Trump wants to let the Ukronazis attack just to place the blame on them and dump them politically.
8. Very interestingly, for the very first time most Russian experts who participate in Russian TV talkshows are openly saying that if the Ukronazis officially renege on the Minsk Agreement and attack the Donbass Russia should unilaterally launch a peace-enforcement operation and impose an end to the hostilities in the Donbass and then deal with the complaints coming from the US and Europe.  They point out that both the US and Turkey have large forces deployed in Syria in total illegality and that they are in no position to criticize Russia for imposing a end to combat operation right across the Russian border.
9. There are consistent reports that the Novorussian forces are on their highest combat alert status and that they are impatiently waiting for a green light to finally launch a counter-offensive against the Ukronazis.  The Novorussian forces are much smaller, in the 30’000-40’000 range, but they are much better trained, commanded and equipped, and they are on the defensive.  Their morale is very high, in sharp contrast to the regular Ukrainian forces (Nazi volunteer battalions’ morale is, reportedly, also high).
10. There are also reports that Northern Wind and Voengorg have had a sharp surge.  If that is indeed the case, and I believe that it is, this leads me to conclude that the Russian intelligence agencies have concluded that an attack is inevitable.
11. The official political tone coming from Putin and Lavrov is very disdainful towards Poroshenko which is presented as a clueless, incompetent, immoral and basically a finished politician who is both unwilling and unable to work towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict.  I fully agree with this characterization.  It appears that the Kremlin has basically given up on Poroshenko.
12. There is a pretty good chance that the russophobic EU politicians, who are also horrified by Trump’s election, are encouraging the Ukronazis to trigger a shooting war which they see as their last chance to create the russophobic hysteria in the West which is their last shot at remaining even marginally relevant on the international scene.  The Germans and the Brits, especially, appear to be doubling-down on their “blame Russia no matter what” policy.

For all these reasons I assess that there is a strong probability that full-scale combat operation between the Ukronazis and the Novorussian will resume in the next couple of days.  At this point in time, I see only one thing which could stop this: a strong and determined order from President Trump telling the Ukrainians to stop, withdraw and come back to the negotiating table.  Alas, I see such an action by President Trump as highly unlikely.

Spring has always been the best time for offensive combat operations in the Ukraine.  The roads are getting better, foliage is returning to the trees and bushes and the temperatures are very slowly beginning to climb back up.  I suspect that the junta would have preferred to attack later, in April-May, but the election of Donald Trump has clearly created a panic in Kiev and since the Ukronazis have no chance of winning (their sole objective is to force a Russian intervention), a February attack might be an acceptable option for them.

The Saker