With its biggest gains versus the dollar this year, the Russian ruble has surpassed even the conventional safe haven of gold to become the best-performing currency in the world.
According to figures provided by Bloomberg, the ruble has gained 38% against the dollar on the over-the-counter market since the start of this year.
The US dollar has been under increasing pressure due to US President Donald Trump’s intensifying trade fights, but Russia’s currency has also benefited from domestic reasons including historically high local interest rates.
According to Sofya Donets, an economist at T-Investments, “the ruble is not facing pressure from capital outflow, caused by global investors’ retreat from riskier assets,” unlike many emerging-market currencies. “Russia has been largely protected from this by capital controls,” she added, adding that the ruble is supported by high borrowing rates.
Even if the US and its allies continue to apply broad sanctions over the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, domestic forces have increased the ruble’s gains versus the declining US dollar. A stronger currency might be good for inflation-hawks, but it could also reduce energy revenue at a time when the government is heavily investing in social programs and military demands.
Iskander Lutsko, head of research and portfolio management at Istar Capital, located in Dubai, stated that foreign investors are seeking exposure to high-yielding currency assets in nations that are still friendly with Russia, despite the persistent sanctions threats.
Furthermore, according to Lutsko, Russian businesses are keen to refinance their local currency debt using considerably less costly yuan-denomination, which is causing more foreign exchange conversions into rubles.