Donbass Update February 5, 2017

Original by Boris Rozhin; translation by J.Hawk

1. In the second half of the day the intensity of shelling had begun to creep up again. Bombardments were noted near Avdeyevka, Zaitsevo, Yasinovataya, Gorlovka, Kalinovo, and the Svetlodarsk salient. Weapons used include mortars 82mm-120mm in caliber, 122mm and 152mm howitzers.

2. Electricity supply in Avdeyevka has been partly restored. The Avdeyevka coke plant continues operation. Gorlovka’s power has also been restored, after the high-tension lines were blown up near Svetlodarsk.

3. Social media are circulating rumors, citing unnamed military sources, that  UAF attacks are possible overnight in the direction of Gorlovka. DPR forces are at heightened readiness.

4. US officially announced that agreements with Russia may be reached irrespective of what is happening in Avdeyevka, thus the question of direct negotiations has been decoupled from the situation on the Donbass battlefront.

5. The enemy is continuing to conduct active reconnaissance of the immediate rear areas of DPR and LPR using drones, they are probably attempting to update data on the first echelon of DPR and LPR army corps. Increased patrol/raid activity may be expected.

6. According to DPR MOD, the enemy is bolstering its force grouping near Avdeyevka and Volnovakha. Tochka-U SRBMs were detected near the Avdeyevka coke plant. The bulk of the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade was dispatched from Kharkov to the Donbass.

7. Both sides continue to accuse one another of using the Avdeyevka and Makeyevka urban areas for military purposes. No serious changes here are expected.

8. LPR is reporting enemy activity near Zolotoye. There are reports from Lugansk that battle alert has been announced.

Overall, the situation is continuing to unfold in accordance with the old scenario, with local escalations along the static front, but there nevertheless exists a definite probability of escalation due to the absence of any clear diplomatic limits on course of events.